A 4-Step Process for Choosing the Right Weight to Lift

I am a firm believer in autoregulation and teaching my lifters how to choose the weight on the bar as accurately as possible based on what I’m asking them to do. This is why we use RPE-based training almost exclusively. In its purest form, RPE (rate of perceived exertion) is an educated guess on what you’re capable of lifting on a given day. Choosing weights via RPE should be an in-the-moment decision. You absolutely should have a certain weight in mind when going into your training session, but you need to take into account how you’re feeling that day (physically and mentally) and how the weight is moving during warm-ups.

During certain phases of training, the exact weight that a lifter uses isn’t terribly consequential. In a lifter’s off-season, specifically pivot and hypertrophy blocks that are usually far removed from a lifter’s next meet, the lifter won’t derail the general arc of their training if they choose a weight that’s a little too light or too heavy for the RPE assignment. However, as a competition approaches, the need for precision increases. 

Years ago, I used to call all the weights for my lifters. This proved problematic when a lifter was having an off-day and wasn’t able to hit the assigned weight and reps. Then, as I understood the importance of autoregulation and lifter autonomy, I shifted toward RPE-based loading assignments. As I’ve refined that approach, for some of my lifters who are getting close to a meet, I’ve found myself using RPE but with a suggested weight range. Sometimes, even the best lifters need to work within constraints to help their decision making.

How do I come up with these suggested ranges? At first, it was just instinct. As my suggestions got more accurate and in turn my lifters were seeing better results, I reverse engineered the process so I could replicate it with more of my lifters. It goes like this:

Step 1: Know Your Current Competition Best

This one’s pretty simple: what’s your best squat, bench and deadlift in competition? This is our starting point.

Step 2: Set a New Goal

Pick a new number that you want to hit at your next meet. Make sure it’s realistic; I typically suggest not more than a 5 percent increase from your current PR for more experienced lifters.

Step 3: Figure Out How Far Away from the Goal You Currently Are

Objectively assess how far you are away from the goal you set. You might be pretty close, or you might be further away than you’d like. It all depends on the quality and focus of your most recent training. Look back at your training log and dig into the numbers. Understand that you’re not always at your “peak” abilities, even if you’ve been training hard. 

Step 4: Use Estimated 1RM to Pick Benchmark Numbers

Based on Step 2 and Step 3, now the coach (me) can start to pick out benchmark numbers that the lifter needs to hit to get where they want to do. For example:

  • Lifter’s best competition squat is 400 lbs.
  • Lifter wants to squat 420 at their next meet (a 5 percent increase).
  • Lifter has been training hard and their squat has been going well, so they believe their current squat 1RM is about 410 lbs.
  • Using estimated 1RMs, I can map out approximately what that lifter should be able to hit for sets of 1-3 reps at 7-10 RPE if their current 1RM is 410 and what they’d need to hit to ultimately get to their goal of 420. 

*Note* I calculate projected 1RMs based on Mike Tuchscherer’s Customizing Your RPE Chart which can be found here.*

Current Squat Max: 410
SinglesDoublesTriples
410 x 1 @ 10390 x 2 @ 10378 x 3 @ 10
390 x 1 @ 9378 x 2 @ 9365 x 3 @ 9
378 x 1 @ 8365 x 2 @ 8353 x 3 @ 8
365 x 1 @ 7353 x 2 @ 7343 x 3 @ 7
Goal Squat Max: 420
SinglesDoublesTriples
420 x 1 @ 10400 x 2 @ 10387 x 3 @ 10
400 x 1 @ 9387 x 2 @ 9375 x 3 @ 9
387 x 1 @ 8375 x 2 @ 8362 x 3 @ 8
375 x 1 @ 7362 x 2 @ 7350 x 3 @ 7

Now when I assign a top set at a certain rep range at a certain RPE, I can prescribe a weight range that takes into account where the lifter’s current strength level is and where they want to go. For example, at the start of the training block (when we’re assuming that lifter’s current squat 1RM is 410), I might prescribe a top set of 3 @ 8 RPE. I know that should be about 353 pounds, but in the spirit of autoregulation, I may give them a 5-10 pound window in either direction. The assignment on their program would look like this:

Work up to 1×3 @ 8 RPE (suggestion: 345-360)

If they hit 350-355 and it’s an 8 RPE, I know they’re right about where we thought they were. If they take the low end, maybe they’re a little behind. If they take the top range of 360 and it’s an 8, we’re pleasantly surprised and perhaps they’re ahead of schedule, because our estimations for a 420 max show us that 362 x 3 @ 8 RPE is right where they should be.

Like any other goal you set in life, you have to know where you currently are, where you want to go, and what it’s going to take to close the gap between those two places. This approach I’ve developed (and continue to fine-tune) gives me and my lifters a systematic way to check our decision making process. 

RPE-based training will always be more subjective than objective, and that’s OK. We’re human beings, not robots. Humans are a complex, dynamic system. We don’t run on predictable code where a + b always equals c. However, when we track more data for an extended period of time, we can pick out patterns and trends to help us make more educated decisions. Ultimately, to steal a line from Mike Tuchscherer, it should help us put the right weight on the bar and lift it the right number of times more often than not.

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